SYSTEM: Retention Oracle
LIVEWhy I Built This
Most retention tools require 365 days of data to tell you what your 365-day retention is. Useless. This one takes Day 1, Day 7, Day 30 — the data you actually have — and extrapolates the curve using power law regression. The verdict is deliberately blunt. You want the truth early, not a comfortable lie at the end of a year.
Background
Retention curves in consumer apps reliably follow a power law: R(t) = a × t^(−b). Fit that to Day 1, Day 7, and Day 30 data — the three points you always have — and you can project the full curve forward. The Oracle does exactly this, shows the curve, and delivers a Gonzo verdict based on where Day 30 sits and how the decay behaves.
It is not a replacement for long-term measurement. It is a signal: is this cohort clearly terrible, clearly healthy, or inconclusive? That question has an answer at Day 30. You do not need to wait for Day 365.